Analysis: Democrats see this as their silver bullet issue in 2022
TV ad buys are (still) the biggest expenditure most campaigns make. So, they don’t waste money on messages they don’t think will work.
Which is what makes the amount of money that Democratic groups and candidates have spent on ads highlighting the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade so incredibly telling and important about their midterm plans.
“Abortion has emerged as an important issue in motivating the votes of many people, including women in political swing groups. Women who are independents, for example, shifted 20 percentage points in the Democrats’ direction, and Hispanic women moved by 15 points.”
There’s no debate that the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling has brought Democrats back from the brink of what looked like — as recently as the start of the summer — a political cataclysm. Most nonpartisan political handicappers see the fight for Senate control as a genuine toss-up. House Republicans are still given the edge in the race for the lower chamber, but predictions of massive seat gains have withered.
The question now is whether abortion as a motivator for the Democratic base — and independent women — will sustain for the next 62 days. Democrats are betting — and betting big — that it will.